Yize amanani entengo kagesi ehle kakhulu ukusuka phezulu ngemuva kobhubhane, kunesizathu sokukholelwa ukuthi le nkinga isekude ukuphela.Umbiko wakamuva we-International Energy Agency (IEA) ukubize ngokuthi “inkinga yokuqala yeqiniso yamandla emhlabeni jikelele.”
Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi i-geopolitics yandisa izinkinga embonini esivele ihlaselwe yilolu bhubhane.Kubathengi, ikakhulukazi amaqembu ahola kancane abachitha ingxenye enkulu yeholo labo ngamandla, lokhu kuwukuphinda kabili.Ngoba noma ngabe bathola imali yamahhala ngesikhathi sodlame noma cha, kuzomele bayibuyisele njengoba amanani ayo yonke into kusukela ekudleni nakwigesi kuya ezindlini nasezimotweni enyuka.Futhi manje i-Fed yenza konke engakwenza ukuze ubuhlungu bube bubi nakakhulu.Ngoba izinto kumele zibe zimbi kakhulu ngaphambi kokuthi zibe ngcono.
Nakuba zibuhlungu, lokhu kuwumoya wezinkampani zikawoyela negesi zase-US, ezizimisele ngokulokhu zikhuphula amanani ngenkathi zikhawulela ukukhiqizwa.Phela inkinga kagesi isineminyaka yakha njengoba izinkampani zikawoyela ziqhubeka nokunciphisa umthamo ngaphambi kokuba zikhiqize amandla ahlanzekile anele ukuze zingene esikhundleni sawo.Abatshalizimali bayawusekela umbono womthamo olinganiselwe ngoba kuyimishini yokunakekela kakhulu enganciphisa kakhulu inzuzo lapho isidingo sincipha.
Kepha kulo nyaka abaphathi beBiden kudingeke ukuthi bakhiphe imali ebekiwe ukuze behlise amanani entengo emazingeni afanele, ngakho-ke kucacela wonke umuntu ukuthi kudingeka umthamo owengeziwe.Yilokhu esikubona manje.Amanani cishe azohlala ku- $70-$90 esikhathini esiningi sika-2023, aphinde avumele uhulumeni ukuthi agcwalise izindawo ezigciniwe zamasu.Ngakho-ke kungakhathaliseki ukuthi sicabangani, isidingo asiyi ndawo.
Embulungeni yonke, isimo naso sihle.Imiphumela yalokhu kwehluleka ibingeke ibe mibi kakhulu ukube iRussia ibingumdlali omncane kule makethe.Kodwa ngenxa yesimo sawo njengomphakeli omkhulu wamafutha, kanye nomphakeli omkhulu wegesi (eYurophu), uye wazuza ukubaluleka okukhulu.IRussia ithe izokwehlisa ukukhiqizwa ngo-7% ngokuphendula unswinyo lwaseNtshonalanga kanye nemizamo yokunciphisa intengo kawoyela waseRussia.Asazi ukuthi angaqhubeka isikhathi eside kangakanani ukwenza lokhu, njengoba amanani aphezulu azolimaza amakhasimende akhe, kunjalo.
Kodwa-ke, ngo-2023, kuzovela enye into.Leli yiShayina.Izwe lase-Asia livaliwe isikhathi esiningi salo nyaka.Ngakho-ke noma i-US yehlisa ijubane kancane, iChina ingahle iqale ukuhum.Lokhu kuzosho isidingo esiphezulu (namandla amanani) kulawa masheya.
Isiphakamiso se-IEA sokwandisa ukusetshenziswa kwamandla ahlanzekile esikhundleni sikawoyela sisho ukuthi inkinga yamanje kufanele iqhubeke kuze kube yilapho ukusetshenziswa kukaphethiloli wezinsalela ezimbiwa phansi (okuye kwanda ngenxa yokukhula komnotho) kuphakama bese kungena esigabeni sokwehla kancane kancane.
Ibikezela ukuthi "ukusetshenziswa kwamalahle kuzokwehla eminyakeni embalwa ezayo, isidingo segesi yemvelo sizozinza ngasekupheleni kweminyaka eyishumi, futhi ukunyuka kokuthengiswa kwezimoto zikagesi (EV) kusho ukuthi ukufunwa kukawoyela kuzozinza maphakathi nawo-2030 bese kwehle kancane ekupheleni kweshumi leminyaka.”maphakathi nekhulu leminyaka..”
Kodwa-ke, ukuze kuzuzwe i-zero ekhishwayo ngo-2050, ukutshalwa kwezimali okuhlanzekile kwamandla kuzodinga ukuba kudlule ama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezine ngo-2030, okungaba yingxenye yalokho emazingeni amanje.
Sekukonke, isidingo sikawoyela sizohlala siqinile eminyakeni embalwa ezayo, futhi singazuza kakhulu ngokwenza ukutshalwa kwezimali okuhlakaniphile.Bheka engikukhethile namuhla -
I-Helmerich & Payne ihlinzeka ngezinsizakalo zokumba kanye nezixazululo zezinkampani ezihlola uwoyela kanye nokukhiqiza.Isebenza ngezigaba ezintathu: North American Solutions, Offshore Gulf of Mexico kanye ne-International Solutions.
Imali etholwayo yenkampani yekota yesine ibihambisana ne-Zacks Consensus Estimate, ekhuphuke ngo-6.8%.
Izibikezelo zayo zeminyaka yezimali ka-2023 kanye no-2024 (ngoSepthemba) zibuyekezwe phezulu ngamasenti angama-74 (19.9%) kanye namasenti angama-60 (12.4%), ngokulandelana, ezinsukwini ezingama-60 ezedlule.Abahlaziyi manje balindele ukuthi imali engenayo yenkampani inyuke ngo-45.4% no-10.2%, ngokulandelana, eminyakeni emibili, kuyilapho inzuzo ikhuphuka ngo-4,360% kanye no-22.0%.I-Zacks Rank #1 (Recommended Thenga) ingeyezimboni zikawoyela negesi kanye nezimbayo (ezingu-4% eziphezulu ezimbonini ezihlukaniswe ngabakwaZacks).
Abaphathi banethemba “ngomfutho obalulekile kuzimali zika-2023”.Abatshalizimali kufanele bakhuthazwe ukuthi bagxile ezintweni ezintathu ezibalulekile.
Okokuqala, yimikhumbi ye-Flexrig, eyenza ukwabiwa kwezimali kusebenze kahle.Lokhu kushiya isikhathi esincane sokuphumula kumshini ngamunye njengoba inkontileka yakhona idluliselwa kwelinye ikhasimende ngokushesha ngemva kokuba ikhishwe ikhasimende elilodwa.Lokhu kungonga imali eningi.Kulo nyaka, i-Helmerich izophinda iqale kabusha izinsimbi zamapayipi abandayo ayi-16 enezinkontileka zesikhathi esinqunyiwe okungenani zeminyaka emi-2.Cishe izingxenye ezimbili kwezintathu zalesi samba sezikhishiwe, iningi lazo okuzoba ngeyezimpahla ezinkulu ezidayiswa esidlangalaleni zokuhlola nokukhiqiza, ikakhulukazi engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka wezimali.
Okwesibili, amanani entengo abe phezulu kulo nyaka, okungamangazi uma kubhekwa inkinga kagesi.Kodwa okukhuthaza kakhulu ukuthi isidingo esinamandla nezandiso zenkontileka kulindeleke ukuthi ziqhubeke nokwenyusa isilinganiso sentengo yemikhumbi yokusebenza.Abaphathi babone ukuthuthuka okukhulu kulo nyaka wezimali.Ukunikezwa kwayo kobuchwepheshe kanye nezixazululo ezizenzakalelayo kushayela ngokusobala isidingo njengoba ama-rigs amadala awasasebenzi kahle.
I-NexTier Oilfield Solutions ihlinzeka ngezinsizakalo zokuqedela nokukhiqiza kumadamu akhona nakwamanye.Inkampani isebenza ngezigaba ezimbili: Izinsiza Zokuphothula Kahle kanye Nokwakhiwa Kwemithombo kanye Nezinsizakalo Zokusebenza.
Kwikota yakamuva, i-NexTier isebenze kahle kakhulu ngokwesilinganiso sokuvumelana kwe-Zacks ngo-6.5%.Imali engenayo yehle ngo-2.8%.Isibikezelo semali etholwayo sika-2023 sihleli sizinzile ezinsukwini ezingama-60 ezedlule, kodwa senyuke ngo-16 cents (7.8%) ezinsukwini ezingama-90 ezedlule.Lokhu kusho ukwanda kwengeniso ngo-24.5% ngonyaka ozayo kanye nokwenyuka kwemali engenayo ngo-56.7%.I-Zacks Rank #1 isitokwe siphethwe yi-Oil & Gas - Field Services (Top 11%).
Abaphathi bakhulume ngezinzuzo zesakhiwo ezithokozelwa yinkampani.Ukungatholakali kwemikhumbi ephukayo kungenye yezingqinamba ezinkulu ezibambezela ukukhula kokukhiqizwa komhlaba e-US.Nakuba umkhumbi wemikhumbi emisha kufanele ukhuphule usayizi wemikhumbi wamanje wama-270 cishe ngo-25%, ukuthwala kanzima kwesidingo esikhulu kanye nezingqinamba ze-supply chain emikhunjini eyigugu engakhelwanga imisebenzi yesimanje yokuphuka kuzokhipha izindiza eziningi.Ngenxa yalokho, imikhumbi izoqhubeka nokushoda.Izinkampani ze-E&P nazo zibheke ukubuyisela inani kubanikazi bamasheya esikhundleni sokwakha umthamo.
Ngenxa yalokho, ekupheleni kuka-2023, isidingo sase-US (ukuphatha sicaphuna ukuvumelana kwemboni okungu-1 mb/d) sizoqhubeka sidlula ukunikezwa (1.5 mb/d), futhi ngisho noma kunokwehla kwamandla omnotho, lokhu kuhlukana kungase kuqhubeke.kwamanye amazwe.isikhathi Okungenani izinyanga eziyi-18 ezizayo.
Ngenkathi izintengo ze-NexTier zizoba phezulu ngo-2023, zisazoba ngo-10-15% ngaphansi kwamazinga angaphambi kobhubhane.Kodwa-ke, inkampani yasebenzisa lesi simo ukuze iphinde ixoxisane ngemibandela yezohwebo evumayo futhi ingene kozakwethu abaqinile.Ngaleso sikhathi, okokusebenza kwayo okusebenza ngegesi yemvelo kuyaqhubeka nokubanga amanani angcono ngenxa yenzuzo enkulu yezindleko zikaphethiloli zegesi yemvelo.Ngakho-ke, kulindeleke ukuthi bahlale bekhuthele ngisho noma kwenzeka ukwehla komnotho.
I-Patterson ihlinzeka ngezinsizakalo zokumba izinkontileka zasogwini e-US kanye nabasebenzi bamazwe ngamazwe kawoyela negesi.Isebenza ngezigaba ezintathu: Izinsizakalo Zokubhola Izinkontileka, Izinsizakalo Zokujova, kanye Nezinsizakalo Zokubhola Eziqondisayo.
Inkampani ibike imiphumela enamandla kakhulu kwikota yakamuva, yehlula i-Zacks Consensus Estimate ngo-47.4% emalini etholwayo kanye no-6.4% ngokuthengisa.Isilinganiso sokuvumelana kwe-Zacks sango-2023 sikhuphuke ngo-26 cents (13.5%) phakathi nezinsuku ezingu-60 ezedlule, okusho ukwenyuka kweholo ngo-302.9%.Ukukhula kwemali engenayo kulindeleke ukuthi kuqine kakhulu ngonyaka ozayo, ku-30.3%.#1 Isitoko sikaZacks esiphethwe i-Oil & Gas & Drilling (Top 4%)
Inhlolovo yakamuva eyenziwe njengengxenye yenqubo yokuhlela yango-2023 ikhombisa ukuthi kunethemba eliqinile lokuthola ama-rigs engeziwe kuphothifoliyo ebanzi ye-Patterson yamakhasimende angu-70, okuhlanganisa ochwepheshe abakhulu abakhulu, abazimele bakahulumeni kanye nabaqhubi abancane abazimele.Njengamanje bahlela ukwengeza ama-rigs angama-40 ngekota yesine kanye namanye angama-50 ngo-2023. Lokhu kuyinkomba enhle yokukhula kwebhizinisi ngonyaka ozayo.
Le nkampani isebenzisa isidingo esinamandla sama-rigs ukuze kuxoxiswane ngamanani aphezulu, futhi ikhulisa nenani lama-rigs ezinkontilekeni zesikhathi esinqunyiwe, ithuthukisa ukubonakala kwenzuzo nokwandisa amathuba okugeleza kwemali okuzinzile.Imishini yayo ethuthukisiwe, okuhlanganisa amazinga aphezulu okuzenzakalela kanye nokukhishwa okuphansi, kwenza lokhu kwenzeke.
I-Nine Energy Service ingumhlinzeki wesevisi yokuqedela ulwandle eNyakatho Melika Basin nakwamanye amazwe.Ihlinzeka ngokufaka kahle usimende, izinto zokuqedela ezifana nama-hangers nezinsiza, amapaki okuhlukaniswa kwe-fracture, imikhono ye-fracturing, amathuluzi okulungiselela isigaba sokuqala, amapulaki okuphuka, amathuluzi we-casing float, njll, nokunye.amasevisi.
Ngekota kaSepthemba, inkampani ibike imali engenayo ehlule ukuqondiswa kuka-Zacks ngo-8.6%, kuyilapho imali etholwayo yehlula ukuqondiswa kuka-Zacks ngo-137.5%.Ezinsukwini ezingu-60 ezedlule, ukulinganisa kokuvumelana kwe-Zacks kwenyuke ngo-$1.15 (100.9%), okusho ukuthi inzuzo ikhuphuke ngo-301.8% ngo-2023. Abahlaziyi baphinde balindele ukukhuphuka okuqinile kwenzuzo ngo-24.6%.I-Zacks Rank #1 isitokwe siphethwe yi-Oil & Gas - Field Services (Top 11%).
Isimo esihle esibonwa abadlali okukhulunywe ngabo ngenhla sibonakala nasemiphumeleni kaNine.Abaphathi bathi ukukhuphuka okukhulu kwekota ngekota kudalwe amanani entengo kasimende kanye namashubhu ahlanganisiwe, kanye namathuluzi amaningi okuqedela.Izisetshenziswa kanye nokushoda kwezisebenzi kuyaqhubeka nokukhawulela ukutholakala, ngakho amakhasimende azimisele ukukhokha amanani aphezulu.Kodwa-ke, ingxenye yokwenyuka kwamanani usimende eminyakeni embalwa edlule kube ngenxa yokushoda kukasimende ongahluziwe.
Eyisishiyagalolunye inesabelo semakethe esibalulekile ezingxenyeni zokuvala zikasimende nezoncibilika.Ibhekene nokushoda kwezinto zokusetshenziswa kanye nesidingo sokunciphisa intuthu ekhishwayo, izixazululo ezintsha zasiza inkampani ukuthi ithathe ingxenye engama-20% ekufakweni kukasimende wemithombo.Isabelo sayo semakethe yama-soluble plugs (ingomunye wabahlinzeki abane abanesabelo esingu-75%) sivikelwe yizithiyo eziphezulu zokungena ngenxa yokuthi ihlanganisa izinto ezithuthukisiwe okungelula ukuziphindaphinda.Iphinde ibe ingxenye ekhula ngokushesha, abaphathi balindele ukukhula okungama-35% ekupheleni kuka-2023.
Ingabe ufuna ukuthola izeluleko zakamuva ezivela ku-Zacks Investment Research?Namuhla ungalanda izitoko eziphezulu ezingu-7 ezinsukwini ezingu-30 ezilandelayo.Chofoza ukuze uthole lo mbiko wamahhala
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Jan-14-2023